6 months on, Iran's leaders are defying the US and signaling no tolerance for dissent
- After six months of war, Iran's leadership has consolidated around military generals and clerics entrenched in the ruling theocracy, contradicting Trump's initial hopes of regime change.
- Iran's new supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued decrees formally establishing senior leadership and top military posts following the deaths of his father and other top officials in U.S. and Israeli bombing campaigns on February 28.
- Iran's new security council secretary Mohsen Rezaei threatened to retaliate 'in a seismic manner' if Trump takes further action, and warned that if economic war continues, Iran will export no oil from the Persian Gulf.
- Iran's leadership shows little faith in any agreement with the U.S. after being attacked twice during talks, and may be preparing for another assault as the U.S. replenishes interceptor supplies.
- Iran is determined to suppress internal unrest, with the Basij volunteer force playing a major role in crushing January's nationwide protests.
After six months of war, Iran's leadership has consolidated around a core group of military generals and clerics long embedded in the ruling theocracy. They are prepared for a potentially prolonged confrontation with the United States and determined to prevent domestic unrest. This outcome contradicts U.S. President Donald Trump's initial expectations of toppling the Islamic Republic and his subsequent claims that regime change had brought more moderate officials to power.
Iran's new leaders, following the deaths of the previous supreme leader and other top officials in U.S. and Israeli bombing campaigns on February 28, show little confidence in any agreement with Trump. They have been attacked twice during negotiations and may be bracing for further American military action as the U.S. replenishes its interceptor supplies. Additionally, Iran faces mounting economic pressure from an American blockade and Trump's planned new sanctions.
Mohsen Rezaei, the newly appointed secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, issued strong warnings last weekend, stating that Iran will retaliate "in a seismic manner" if Trump takes further action. He also threatened that if the economic war continues, Iran will cease all oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has issued decrees formally establishing the new senior leadership structure and military posts. The regime is also focused on suppressing internal dissent, with the Basij volunteer force playing a central role in crushing nationwide protests that occurred in January.
六个月后，伊朗领导层对美国采取对抗态度并表示不容许异议
经过六个月的战争后，伊朗领导层已围绕长期扎根于统治神权制的军事将领和神职人员团结一致。他们为可能长期与美国对抗做好准备，并决心防止国内骚乱。这一结果与美国总统特朗普最初推翻伊朗伊斯兰共和国的期望以及他随后声称政权更替带来更温和官员的说法相悖。
伊朗新领导层在前最高领袖和其他高级官员于2月28日在美国和以色列轰炸中丧生后，对与特朗普达成任何协议信心不足。他们在谈判期间遭到两次袭击，可能在美国补充拦截器供应后为进一步的美国军事行动做准备。此外，伊朗面临来自美国封锁和特朗普计划的新制裁带来的日益加重的经济压力。
新任伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书长莫森·礼萨伊上周末发出强硬警告，声称如果特朗普采取进一步行动，伊朗将进行"地震级"报复。他还威胁说，如果经济战争继续，伊朗将停止从波斯湾出口所有石油。最高领袖穆吉塔巴·哈梅内伊已发布法令，正式确立新的高级领导层结构和军事职位。该政权还专注于压制国内异议，志愿民兵组织巴斯基在粉碎一月份全国抗议活动中发挥了核心作用。