AI is in a credit expansion period; the stronger AI is, the more the Fed needs to cut rates
- The Federal Reserve's primary mission is to protect U.S. Treasuries rather than focusing solely on inflation or employment.
- As AI technology strengthens, there is an increasing argument for the Fed to cut interest rates.
- AI capital expenditures are competing with U.S. Treasuries for liquidity in the market.
- The emergence of new financing structures for AI indicates that it is entering a credit expansion phase.
- The probability of a rate cut by the Fed is estimated at 60%.
- Long-end interest rates are not decreasing despite liquidity pumps from both AI investments and U.S. Treasury debt issuance.
The Fed's ultimate mission is to protect U.S. Treasuries; the stronger AI gets, the closer rate cuts are, and the bubble is still a long way off. On August 24, 2026, it was noted that long-end rates cannot be pushed down while two liquidity pumps are running simultaneously: big tech companies are investing heavily in AI and the U.S. Treasury is issuing debt aggressively. This situation has led to a competition for liquidity between AI capital expenditures and U.S. Treasuries.
The emergence of project financing, special purpose vehicles (SPVs), and GPU financing signifies that AI has officially entered a credit expansion phase. However, the bubble phase has not yet arrived. The discussion highlighted that the Fed's focus should shift towards cutting rates as AI continues to strengthen, as high rates could negatively impact other industries.
In conclusion, the Fed's actions are increasingly seen as necessary to support the national debt, with a 60% probability of a rate cut expected in the near future, reflecting the intertwined nature of fiscal and monetary policies in the current economic landscape.
人工智能正处于信贷扩张期；人工智能越强，美联储越需要降息
美联储的最终任务是保护美国国债；人工智能越强，降息的可能性就越大，而泡沫阶段仍然遥远。在2026年8月24日，有人指出，尽管两项流动性注入同时进行，但长期利率无法降低：大型科技公司正在大力投资人工智能，而美国财政部则在积极发行债务。这种情况导致人工智能资本支出与美国国债在流动性方面的竞争。
项目融资、特殊目的公司（SPV）和GPU融资的出现表明人工智能已正式进入信贷扩张阶段。然而，泡沫阶段尚未到来。讨论强调，随着人工智能的持续增强，美联储的重点应该转向降息，因为高利率可能对其他行业产生负面影响。
总之，美联储的举措越来越被视为支持国债的必要措施，预计近期降息的概率为60%，反映出当前经济环境中财政政策和货币政策的紧密相互联系。