ArkStream Capital: Capital Migration in Crypto Markets in 2026, from AI Liquidity Siphoning to the Rise of RWA
- ArkStream Capital said crypto weakness in the first half of 2026 was driven mainly by a hawkish Federal Reserve shift, inflation pressure from the US-Iran war, and capital continuing to flow into AI stocks.
- The report said AI returns were moving away from chips, cloud providers, and software applications toward physical supply-chain bottlenecks such as storage and PCBs.
- It described the June 2026 FOMC meeting as a turning point, with the Fed keeping rates unchanged while lowering growth forecasts, slightly raising unemployment expectations, and lifting near-term inflation projections.
- The analysis argued that the usual tools for pricing the Fed path were weakened after the change in Fed leadership, increasing volatility in risk assets, especially high-beta assets such as crypto.
- RWA was one of the few crypto sectors with net inflows, with on-chain scale rising from about $21.6 billion at the start of 2026 to $33 billion, led by tokenized equities and RWA perpetual contracts.
- ArkStream Capital judged that the siphoning effect of US equities on crypto may have peaked in June 2026, and that the market could already be in a slow repair phase if no new major negative catalyst appears.
ArkStream Capital’s analysis says the first half of 2026 was shaped by a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve expectations, supply-side inflation linked to the US-Iran war, and continued capital concentration in AI equities. Against that backdrop, global stocks rose while bitcoin and broader crypto assets weakened, which the report characterizes as a divergence between risk assets rather than an industry-specific collapse.
The report says the market moved from expecting rate cuts to pricing in the possibility of rate hikes after the Fed leadership change. It highlights the June 2026 FOMC meeting as the key turning point, when the Fed held rates steady but signaled lower growth, slightly higher unemployment, and firmer inflation, reinforcing stagflation concerns and increasing volatility across risk assets.
On the AI side, ArkStream Capital says the return profile is shifting away from the most visible parts of the sector and toward bottlenecks in the physical supply chain. It also notes that upcoming large IPOs could test the sector’s elevated valuations and cash-burn model. For equities, the report implies the AI trade remained a major magnet for capital in the period discussed.
Within crypto, the report says demand for speculative coins is weakening, but demand for trading traditional assets such as stocks and commodities through crypto infrastructure is rising. RWA was described as one of the few sectors still attracting net inflows, with the report treating that trend as supportive for tokenized-asset and related crypto infrastructure segments, while the broader market remains more cautious.
ArkStream Capital：2026年加密市场资本迁移，从AI虹吸到RWA崛起
ArkStream Capital的分析认为，2026年上半年加密市场的走弱，主要由美联储预期转向偏鹰、与美国和伊朗战争相关的供给侧通胀，以及资金继续集中流向AI股票所推动。在这一背景下，全球股市整体上涨，而比特币和更广泛的加密资产走弱，报告将其概括为风险资产之间的分化，而不是行业自身的崩塌。
报告称，在美联储领导层变化后，市场对利率的预期从降息转向甚至计入加息可能。它把2026年6月的FOMC会议视为关键转折点：美联储在维持利率不变的同时，下调增长、略抬失业率、并强化通胀预期，从而加深了市场对滞胀的担忧，也抬高了风险资产的波动。
在AI领域，ArkStream Capital认为收益重心正在从最显眼的环节，转向存储、PCB等物理供应链瓶颈。报告还指出，后续的大型IPO可能检验AI行业偏高估值和重资本烧钱模式。对股票市场而言，这意味着AI交易在文中所述时期仍是主要资金吸引力之一。
在加密市场内部，报告称投机性“币”的需求走弱，但通过加密基础设施交易股票、商品等传统资产的需求在上升。RWA被描述为少数仍有净流入的赛道之一，报告将这一趋势视为对代币化资产及相关加密基础设施板块的支撑；但对整体加密市场而言，短期影响仍偏利空，RWA相关方向相对偏利好。