ArkStream Capital: From AI Siphoning to RWA Rise, Capital Migration in the Crypto Market in 2026
- The report says crypto's weakness in the first half of 2026 was driven mainly by macro factors, including a hawkish Federal Reserve shift, supply-side inflation from the US-Iran war, and continued liquidity absorption by AI stocks, rather than by an internal industry collapse.
- It says market expectations moved from multiple rate cuts at the start of the year to at least one rate hike after the Fed leadership change, with the June 2026 FOMC seen as a turning point because officials raised inflation expectations and signaled stagflation concerns.
- The report notes that global equities such as the Dow Jones and South Korea's KOSPI rose sharply in the period, while bitcoin fell about 20.5% in June and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 15.
- Against a broader DeFi contraction, RWA was one of the few crypto sectors with net inflows, with on-chain scale rising from about $21.6 billion at the start of the year to $33 billion.
- The fastest growth was seen in tokenized equities and RWA perpetual contracts, while demand for coins weakened and demand for trading traditional assets through crypto infrastructure increased; the author judges the AI stock siphoning effect on crypto may have peaked in June 2026.
- The report says that if no major new negative catalyst appears, the crypto market may already be in a slow repair phase.
ArkStream Capital argues that the first half of 2026 was defined by macro shocks rather than a crypto-specific breakdown. In its view, the combination of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, inflation pressure linked to the US-Iran war, and continued capital absorption by AI equities weighed on digital assets while broader stock markets advanced. For crypto, that backdrop was bearish.
The report says rate-cut expectations were steadily replaced by rate-hike expectations after the Fed leadership change. It identifies the June 2026 FOMC meeting as a key inflection point, with officials lifting inflation expectations and signaling stagflation concerns. The author says this made risk-asset pricing more volatile, especially for higher-beta assets such as crypto.
In the same period, the report says RWA was one of the few crypto sectors still attracting net inflows. On-chain RWA scale increased from about $21.6 billion at the start of the year to $33 billion, with tokenized equities and RWA perpetual contracts leading growth. The report frames this as a shift in demand from speculative coin exposure toward trading traditional assets through crypto rails.
ArkStream Capital concludes that the AI-stock siphoning effect on crypto may have peaked in June 2026. If no new major negative catalyst appears, it suggests the crypto market could already be in a gradual repair phase. The near-term market implication is mixed to slightly negative for broad crypto assets, while RWA-related segments appear comparatively supportive; traditional equities linked to AI remained a competing destination for capital.
ArkStream Capital：从AI抽水到RWA崛起，2026年加密市场的资本迁移
ArkStream Capital认为，2026年上半年决定市场走势的主要是宏观冲击，而不是加密行业自身出了问题。其判断是，美联储立场转鹰、美国与伊朗战争带来的通胀压力，以及AI股票持续吸走资金，共同压制了数字资产，而更广泛的股市则继续上行。对加密市场来说，这一环境偏空。
报告称，随着美联储领导层更换，市场对降息的预期逐步被加息预期取代。它把2026年6月的FOMC会议视为关键拐点，认为官员上调通胀预期并释放滞胀担忧，使风险资产定价波动明显加剧，尤其是高贝塔资产。
同一时期，报告指出RWA是少数仍在吸引净流入的加密板块之一。RWA链上规模从年初约216亿美元增至330亿美元，其中代币化股票和RWA永续合约增长最快。报告将这一变化概括为：资金需求正从投机性“币”转向通过加密基础设施交易股票、大宗商品等传统资产。
ArkStream Capital最后认为，AI股票对加密市场的抽水效应可能已在2026年6月见顶。如果后续没有新的重大负面催化，市场可能已经进入缓慢修复阶段。对市场的潜在影响上，广义加密资产偏中性到略偏空，而RWA相关板块相对更受支持；AI相关美股仍是资本竞争去向之一。