Deconstructing the Next Crypto Cycle: VCs Will Disappear, Prediction Markets Are Overrated, Which Perp DEX Can Challenge Hyperliquid?
- Crypto is currently in a bear market with major exchanges shutting down trading operations.
- Many prominent crypto projects from the last cycle are also shutting down.
- Talent and capital are shifting towards AI, leading to a decline in primary market VCs.
- Lao Bai believes that token issuance is a liability and that the era of treating blockchain as a universal solution is over.
- He identifies stablecoins and perpetual contracts as the most significant innovations in the crypto space.
The current state of the crypto market is marked by a significant downturn, with exchanges like BitMEX and BitMart ceasing trading operations. Many successful projects from the previous cycle, such as Zapper and Fantasy Top, are also shutting down, indicating a broader trend of decline in the sector.
Lao Bai, a seasoned figure in the crypto space, discusses the migration of talent and capital towards AI, suggesting that this shift is contributing to the challenges faced by primary market venture capitalists. He emphasizes that the concept of token issuance should be viewed as a liability rather than a fundraising opportunity.
In his analysis, Lao Bai critiques the overestimation of prediction markets, stating that their potential is limited compared to perpetual contracts. He argues that the era of viewing blockchain as a catch-all solution is over, and highlights stablecoins and perpetual contracts as the most valuable innovations in the industry.
解构下一个加密周期：风险投资将消失，预测市场被高估，哪个永久去中心化交易所能挑战Hyperliquid？
当前加密市场的状态显著下滑，像BitMEX和BitMart这样的交易所停止了交易业务。许多上一周期成功的项目，如Zapper和Fantasy Top，也在关闭，这表明该行业面临更广泛的衰退趋势。
老白，这位加密领域的资深人士，讨论了人才和资本向人工智能迁移的情况，并指出这种转变正在加剧初级市场风险投资者面临的挑战。他强调，代币发行应被视为负债，而非筹款机会。
在他的分析中，老白批评了对预测市场的高估，指出其潜力相较于永久合约是有限的。他认为，将区块链视为通用解决方案的时代已经结束，并强调稳定币和永久合约是行业中最有价值的创新。