Fed Chair Warsh Signals Hawkish Stance; Goldman Sachs Skeptical of September Rate Hike, JPMorgan Awaits August Data
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish Jackson Hole speech, stating inflation remains 'concerning' and the Fed still has work to do if underlying inflation doesn't return to target at a sufficient pace.
- Following Warsh's speech, the 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 7 basis points and market pricing for a September rate hike rose from approximately 30% to over 50%.
- JPMorgan maintains its baseline forecast of a December rate hike, with the key determinants being August nonfarm payrolls and CPI data.
- Goldman Sachs expects August core CPI and core PCE to rise about 0.2% month-over-month, and forecasts the FOMC will remain on hold unless data comes in stronger than expected.
- Warsh clarified two controversial July statements: reaffirming the Fed's unwavering 2% inflation target and confirming the short-term interest rate as the primary policy tool.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a notably hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, emphasizing that inflation remains 'concerning' and the Fed's primary focus should be on price stability. While acknowledging recent improvements in PCE and CPI readings, Warsh stressed that the underlying inflation trend has not materially improved, citing data showing 54% of goods and services in the PCE basket experienced price increases above 3% over the past 12 months—far above pre-pandemic levels. The speech triggered significant market reaction, with 2-year Treasury yields rising about 7 basis points and market probability of a September rate hike climbing from roughly 30% to over 50%.
Despite the hawkish market interpretation, major Wall Street banks remain cautious about near-term rate hike prospects. JPMorgan maintained its baseline forecast of a December rate hike, with economist Michael Feroli stating that August nonfarm payrolls and CPI reports will be the critical determinants for the September meeting outcome. Goldman Sachs was more definitive, expecting August core inflation to rise approximately 0.2% month-over-month, which would likely lead the FOMC to hold rates steady unless incoming data surprises significantly to the upside.
Warsh also proactively clarified two statements from July's FOMC press conference that had unsettled markets. He explicitly reaffirmed the Fed's 'unwavering, fixed' 2% inflation target measured by PCE and confirmed that the short-term interest rate remains the primary tool for achieving the dual mandate. These clarifications signal that higher inflation will be met with higher interest rates, though the timing remains contingent on incoming economic data.
美联储主席沃什释放鹰派信号；高盛对9月加息持怀疑态度，摩根大通等待8月数据
美联储主席沃什在杰克逊霍尔发表明显鹰派演讲，强调通胀仍令人担忧，美联储的首要任务应是维护物价稳定。虽然承认最近PCE和CPI数据有所改善，但沃什强调基础通胀趋势未见实质改善，引用数据显示过去12个月PCE篮子中54%的商品和服务价格涨幅超过3%，远高于疫情前水平。演讲引发显著市场反应，2年期美债收益率上升约7个基点，市场对9月加息的概率从约30%上升至50%以上。
尽管市场对鹰派立场的解读，华尔街主要银行对近期加息前景仍持谨慎态度。摩根大通维持12月加息的基准预测，经济学家费罗利表示8月非农就业和CPI报告将是决定9月会议结果的关键因素。高盛态度更为明确，预期8月核心通胀环比上升约0.2%，这可能导致美联储维持利率不变，除非数据出现明显上行意外。
沃什还主动澄清了7月美联储政策委员会新闻发布会中引发市场不安的两项表述。他明确重申美联储对2%通胀目标（以PCE衡量）的'坚定不移的固定'承诺，并确认短期利率仍是实现双重使命的主要工具。这些澄清表明更高的通胀将面临更高的利率，但具体时间仍取决于即将公布的经济数据。