Fed minutes show multiple Fed officials inclined to raise rates, saying action needed if inflation remains high
- The Federal Reserve's latest minutes showed several officials leaned toward raising interest rates at the July 28-29 meeting.
- Many policymakers said tighter monetary policy would be needed if inflation did not continue to decline.
- Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari dissented in favor of a 25 basis point rate increase.
- Kansas City Fed President Schmid and St. Louis Fed President Musalem said they would have supported a rate hike if they had been voting members.
- Officials said inflation expectations remained highly uncertain, while the labor market was judged to be stable and economic growth solid.
- The minutes also said renewed escalation of the Iran war further clouded the inflation outlook.
Federal Reserve minutes from the July 28-29 meeting showed that several officials were inclined to raise rates, and many participants said further tightening would be needed if inflation did not keep easing. The minutes also said officials remained on alert because of ongoing uncertainty around the economic outlook.
Three regional Fed presidents - Dallas's Lorie Logan, Cleveland's Beth Hammack, and Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari - dissented in favor of a 25 basis point increase. Kansas City Fed President Schmid and St. Louis Fed President Musalem said they would have backed a hike if they had had votes.
The discussion focused largely on inflation. Most participants expected inflation to ease gradually as tariff and energy price effects faded, but many also warned it could stay elevated for longer. The minutes described inflation assessments as highly uncertain and said the renewed escalation of the Iran war added to that uncertainty.
Officials said the labor market remained stable and supply and demand were broadly in balance. The post-meeting statement was nearly unchanged from June, again emphasizing price stability and describing growth as solid. For markets, the minutes are mildly negative for stocks and other risk assets, and mildly supportive for the U.S. dollar; they are generally negative for gold and cryptocurrencies if rate-hike expectations rise.
美联储会议纪要显示，多位官员倾向加息，并称若通胀居高不下需采取行动
7月28日至29日的美联储会议纪要显示，几位官员倾向于加息；不少与会者表示，如果通胀没有继续回落，就需要进一步收紧货币政策。纪要还称，围绕经济前景的不确定性仍使官员保持警惕。
达拉斯联储主席洛根、克利夫兰联储主席哈马克和明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利投票反对，并支持加息25个基点。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德和圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆则表示，如果当时有投票权，他们也会支持加息。
会议讨论主要集中在通胀前景上。多数与会者预计，随着关税和能源价格上涨的影响消退，通胀将在今年余下时间逐步回落，但也有不少人认为，通胀可能会在更长时间内维持高位。纪要称，通胀判断“高度不确定”，伊朗局势再度升级也进一步加大了这一不确定性。
官员们判断劳动力市场仍然稳定，供需大体平衡。会后声明与6月版本几乎没有变化，再次强调实现物价稳定，并将经济增长描述为稳健。对市场而言，这类表态通常对股票等风险资产偏利空，对美元偏利好；若加息预期升温，黄金和加密货币也往往偏利空。