Grayscale: Probability of Clarity Act passing this year is very low, but impact is limited
- Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl stated that the Clarity Act's passage this year is very unlikely due to the Senate schedule and election-year politics.
- The failure to pass the Clarity Act would not immediately affect major blockchains or the demand for bitcoin.
- The lack of comprehensive market structure legislation could hinder new investment activity in the U.S.
- Regulatory guidance from the current administration has been supportive of the industry through new rules and frameworks.
- The U.S. Senate has initiated the first procedural vote process for the Clarity Act.
Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl published an analysis indicating that while a deal on the Clarity Act is still technically possible, the chances of it passing this year are very low due to the Senate schedule and the political realities of an election year.
Pandl noted that the failure to pass the bill would not have an immediate impact on the operation of major blockchains or the demand for bitcoin as a store of value, as the industry has been developing for nearly 17 years without this legislation.
However, he cautioned that the absence of comprehensive market structure legislation could limit new investment activities in the U.S., particularly in areas such as tokenized securities markets and the regulatory framework for digital asset intermediaries.
Under the current administration, regulatory guidance has been favorable, with new rules on institutional custody, improved bank access, staking policy, and the crypto ETP framework expected to continue evolving.
The U.S. Senate has initiated the first procedural vote process for the Clarity Act, with the potential for advancement after the September recess.
Grayscale：清晰法案今年通过的可能性很低，但影响有限
Grayscale研究总监Zach Pandl发布了一份分析，指出尽管清晰法案在技术上仍有可能达成协议，但由于参议院日程和选举年政治，法案今年通过的机会非常低。
Pandl指出，清晰法案未能通过不会立即影响主要区块链的运作或比特币作为价值储存的需求，因为该行业在没有这项立法的情况下已经发展了近17年。
然而，他警告说，缺乏全面市场结构立法可能会限制美国的新投资活动，尤其是在代币化证券市场和数字资产中介的监管框架等领域。
在现任政府下，监管指导对行业是有利的，预计新的机构保管、改善银行接入、质押政策和加密ETP框架的新规则将继续演变。
美国参议院已启动清晰法案的首次程序投票过程，预计在9月休会后有可能推进。