Grayscale: Probability of Clarity Act passing this year is very low, but impact is limited
- Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl stated that the passage of the Clarity Act this year is very unlikely due to Senate scheduling and election-year politics.
- The failure to pass the bill will not immediately affect major blockchains or the demand for bitcoin.
- The lack of comprehensive market structure legislation could hinder new investment activity in the U.S.
- Regulatory guidance from the current administration has been supportive of the industry, focusing on areas like institutional custody and staking policy.
- The U.S. Senate has initiated a procedural vote process for the Clarity Act, which could advance after the September recess.
Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl published an analysis indicating that while a deal on the Clarity Act remains technically possible, the likelihood of its passage this year is very low due to the Senate schedule and the political realities of an election year.
Pandl noted that the failure to pass the bill would not have an immediate impact on the operation of major blockchains, the demand for bitcoin as a store of value, or the growth of stablecoin payments, as the industry has been developing for nearly 17 years without this legislation.
However, he highlighted that the absence of comprehensive market structure legislation could impede new investment activity in the U.S., including the development of tokenized securities markets and the regulatory framework for digital asset intermediaries. The current administration has been providing regulatory guidance that supports the industry through new rules on institutional custody, improved bank access, and staking policy.
Additionally, the U.S. Senate has initiated the first procedural vote process for the Clarity Act, which has the potential to advance after the September recess ends.
Grayscale：今年通过《明确法案》的可能性很低，但影响有限
Grayscale研究总监Zach Pandl发表了一项分析，指出尽管《明确法案》在技术上仍有可能达成协议，但由于参议院的日程安排和选举年的政治现实，今年通过该法案的可能性非常低。
Pandl指出，该法案未能通过不会对主要区块链的运营、比特币作为价值储存的需求或稳定币支付的增长产生立即影响，因为该行业在没有这项立法的情况下已经发展了近17年。
然而，他强调，缺乏全面的市场结构立法可能会阻碍美国的新投资活动，包括代币化证券市场的发展和数字资产中介的监管框架。现任政府通过新的机构保管规则、改善银行访问和质押政策等方面提供的监管指导对行业持支持态度。
此外，美国参议院已启动《明确法案》的第一次程序投票流程，可能在九月休会后推进。