Grayscale says Bitcoin may reach a cycle turning point this week, with history suggesting a long-term bottom may have formed
- Grayscale said this week’s Bitcoin price action could mark an important turning point in the current cycle.
- The firm said Bitcoin has historically bottomed after falling about 80% from a prior cycle high.
- It noted that the current bear-market decline has been about 50% at most, smaller than in several earlier cycles.
- Grayscale said the recent rebound may indicate Bitcoin has formed a more durable bottom, though downside risks remain.
- The firm also said macro conditions, liquidity, and investor sentiment will still influence the next price move.
Grayscale said in a post on X that this week’s market action could become a key turning point for Bitcoin’s cycle. The company pointed to historical patterns in which Bitcoin often established a bottom only after much deeper drawdowns than those seen in the current decline.
According to the firm, previous bear markets were marked by declines of roughly 80% from the prior cycle high before a new uptrend began. By comparison, Grayscale said the latest bear-market decline has been limited to around 50%, suggesting the current cycle may be behaving differently from earlier ones.
The firm said some market participants had been watching for the possibility of another decline later in the cycle, but the recent rebound has led investors to reassess whether a sustainable bottom may already be in place. If the recovery continues, Grayscale said Bitcoin could be entering a new accumulation phase.
The potential market impact is positive for crypto sentiment in the near term, as the comments frame Bitcoin as possibly stabilizing after a shallow correction. Grayscale also cautioned that the outlook still depends on macro conditions, liquidity, and investor sentiment.
Grayscale称比特币本周可能迎来周期转折点，历史模式显示长期底部或已形成
Grayscale在X平台发文称，本周的比特币市场走势可能成为其周期中的关键转折点。公司援引历史规律指出，比特币往往要在较前一轮高点出现更深幅度回撤后，才会形成底部。
Grayscale表示，过去几个熊市中，比特币通常在从周期高点下跌约80%后才开启新的上升趋势。相比之下，这一轮熊市的最大跌幅约为50%，说明当前周期与以往相比回撤更浅。
公司提到，部分市场参与者此前关注比特币在周期后段是否还会出现进一步下跌，但近期反弹让投资者开始重新评估是否已经形成较为稳固的底部。若反弹延续，Grayscale认为比特币可能进入新的吸筹阶段。
就市场影响而言，这一判断对加密货币情绪偏利好，因为它暗示比特币在较浅回撤后可能已趋于稳定。不过，Grayscale也强调，后续走势仍取决于宏观环境、流动性和投资者情绪。