HashKey In-Depth: Trillion-Dollar Unwinding, Why Bitcoin and Gold Became the Biggest Winners in the FIMA Era
- The article says the Bank of Japan has kept raising rates while the Federal Reserve has cut rates, narrowing the U.S.-Japan rate gap and weakening the foundation of the long-running yen carry trade.
- It estimates the broad scale of yen carry-trade exposure at roughly $9.3 trillion to $19.2 trillion when leverage, rehypothecation, and derivatives are included.
- The piece says the carry trade has evolved from buying U.S. Treasuries into financing U.S. technology and AI-related stocks, making those assets more sensitive to yen appreciation and forced deleveraging.
- It explains that the Fed's FIMA repo facility lets foreign authorities borrow dollars against U.S. Treasuries without selling bonds in the market, which can help Japan intervene in FX markets while avoiding immediate Treasury liquidation.
- The article frames this backdrop as potentially supportive for Bitcoin and gold, while posing downside risk to U.S. Treasuries and highly valued risk assets such as technology stocks.
The report argues that global markets are entering a new phase as the Bank of Japan tightens policy and the Federal Reserve eases, narrowing the rate gap that helped sustain the yen carry trade for decades. Against that backdrop, the article says the unwind of yen-funded leverage is becoming a global deleveraging event rather than a narrow currency adjustment.
It describes the carry trade as much larger than the commonly cited bank-loan figures once leverage, rehypothecation, and derivatives are included. The article says the funding has also shifted in recent years from U.S. Treasuries toward U.S. technology and AI-related equities, which makes those holdings more exposed if yen strength forces positions to be cut.
The piece focuses on the Fed's FIMA repo facility as a way for foreign monetary authorities to borrow dollars against Treasury collateral without selling the bonds outright. In the article's framing, that gives Japan a way to support the yen without immediately dumping Treasuries into the market, which helps avoid a disorderly rise in Treasury yields.
The article links this setup to market winners and losers. It suggests the unwind is negative for leveraged risk assets and U.S. Treasuries, while Bitcoin and gold stand out as relative beneficiaries in an environment shaped by liquidity creation, currency intervention, and a retreat from the yen carry trade.
HashKey 深度：万亿美元平仓潮下，为什么比特币和黄金成为 FIMA 时代最大赢家
报道认为，随着日本央行持续收紧政策、美国联储转向降息，美日利差被明显压缩，支撑日元套息交易的基础正在削弱。在这一背景下，文章将日元融资杠杆的平仓过程描述为一场更广泛的全球去杠杆，而不只是单纯的汇率波动。
文章指出，若把杠杆、再质押和衍生品等因素都纳入计算，日元套息交易的规模远大于常见的银行贷款数据。它还称，近几年这类资金的流向已从美债逐步转向美国科技股和 AI 相关股票，这使得这些资产在日元走强、资金被迫撤离时更容易承压。
报道重点介绍了美联储的 FIMA 回购工具，称其可让外国官方机构以美债作抵押借入美元，而不必先在市场上卖债。按文章的说法，这给日本提供了支撑日元的流动性来源，同时避免把大量美债直接抛向市场，从而减少美债收益率失序上行的风险。
文章把这一结构变化对应到市场影响上，认为去杠杆对高杠杆风险资产和美债偏利空，而比特币和黄金则在这种由流动性、汇率干预和套息退潮共同塑造的环境中更可能受益。