Key inflation gauge remains elevated during Iran conflict and ongoing US trade fights
- An inflation measure monitored by the Federal Reserve remained high at 3.7% in July compared to a year earlier.
- Inflation has increased since the U.S. and Israel's military actions against Iran, rising from 2.9% in February.
- Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was unchanged at 3.3% in July.
- The Commerce Department plans to revise how it calculates certain service costs starting next month, which may lower measured inflation.
- Consumer sentiment remains low despite some increase in inflation-adjusted incomes.
The inflation measure closely watched by the Federal Reserve remained elevated at 3.7% in July, unchanged from June. This persistent inflation is a concern for many Americans, especially as it has worsened since the U.S. military actions against Iran began in February, when it was at 2.9%. Despite falling gas prices, the overall inflation rate has been influenced by rising costs in services such as healthcare and utilities.
The Commerce Department's report indicates that core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was also steady at 3.3% in July. The government plans to revise its calculations for certain service costs starting next month, which may lead to a lower inflation measurement in the future. Economists anticipate that these changes could reduce annual PCE inflation by approximately 0.2 percentage points.
Consumer sentiment surveys show that many Americans remain pessimistic about the economy, with inflation-adjusted incomes rising only marginally by 0.2% compared to last year. As gas prices have recently rebounded, further increases in inflation are anticipated when the August figures are reported next month.
关键通胀指标在伊朗冲突和美国贸易斗争中保持高位
美联储关注的通胀指标在七月保持高位，为3.7%，与六月持平。这种持续的通胀对许多美国人来说是一个担忧，尤其是在美国对伊朗采取军事行动后，通胀从二月份的2.9%上升。尽管油价下跌，但整体通胀率受到医疗和公用事业等服务成本上升的影响。
商务部的报告显示，剔除食品和能源价格的核心通胀在七月保持在3.3%不变。政府计划从下个月开始修订某些服务成本的计算方式，这可能导致未来通胀测量的降低。经济学家预计，这些变化可能会将年度个人消费支出通胀降低约0.2个百分点。
消费者信心调查显示，许多美国人对经济仍持悲观态度，通胀调整后的收入与去年相比仅微增0.2%。随着油价近期反弹，预计八月份的通胀数据将进一步上升。