Metrics Ventures: In a Currency 'Race to the Bottom,' the Report Favors Gold and Resource Assets
- The report says Warsh's July remarks were important enough that the monthly analysis was extended beyond July into the July-August period.
- It argues that U.S. dollar problems are too deep to be fixed by any Fed chair and that the intervening period will be marked by repeated disruptions.
- It describes U.S. equities as still showing a relatively complacent attitude, while the bond and currency markets have remained more skeptical about credit conditions.
- The report says gold and silver have already shown an early bottoming pattern, reflecting a central-bank consensus in an era of Western currencies racing to debase themselves.
- For Q3-Q4, it remains bullish on copper, electricity and gold, and it says major excess returns in digital currencies are unlikely before large-scale liquidity release and AI growth slowdown are fully priced in.
- It also says RMB assets remain in a clear bull trend, and that nonferrous resource assets deserve attention in the current macro backdrop.
Metrics Ventures says the July-August analysis was extended because Warsh's July remarks were considered especially significant. The report's macro view is that U.S. dollar weakness is already beyond what a Fed chair can resolve, and the adjustment period is likely to feature repeated market disruptions.
From a market perspective, the report says equities, bonds and currencies are reading credit conditions differently. It characterizes U.S. stocks as still complacent, while bond and FX markets are more skeptical. It also points to the early bottoming of gold and silver as evidence of broad central-bank acceptance that fiat currencies are under ongoing depreciation pressure.
Looking ahead, the report stays constructive on copper, electricity and gold for the third and fourth quarters. It says these assets, along with other resource commodities, are absorbing liquidity, while digital currencies are unlikely to deliver major excess returns until liquidity expansion and slower AI marginal growth are fully reflected in prices. On that basis, the report's implied market bias is positive for gold and resource equities, neutral to cautious for stocks, and near-term negative to neutral for crypto.
Metrics Ventures：当“货币竞底”成为常态时，如何选择避险资产
Metrics Ventures 表示，这份 7-8 月合并的月度分析之所以拉长，是因为 Warsh 7 月的言论被认为格外重要。报告的宏观判断是，美元走弱已经不是任何一位美联储主席能够单独修复的问题，调整过程中更可能伴随反复扰动。
从市场层面看，报告称股市、债市和汇市对信用状况的反应并不一致。它将美股描述为仍偏乐观，而债券和外汇市场则更为怀疑。报告还把黄金和白银较早筑底，解读为在法币持续贬值的背景下，央行层面的某种共识。
展望未来，报告继续看好 3-4 季度的铜、电力和黄金，认为这些资产以及其他资源品正在吸收流动性。它同时指出，在大规模流动性释放和 AI 边际增速放缓被完全计入之前，加密货币很难出现显著超额收益。按这篇报告的框架，其市场含义是：对黄金和资源股偏利好，对股票整体偏中性，对加密货币短期偏中性到偏利空。