Metrics Ventures Market Observation: How Safe-Haven Assets Are Chosen When Currency Depreciation Becomes the Norm
- Metrics Ventures said the dollar's weakness and rising bond-market stress indicate that credit concerns are not being resolved and may continue to create market disruptions.
- The report said U.S. equities, bonds, and currencies are diverging in how they price credit risk, with equities remaining comparatively resilient while bond and currency markets remain skeptical.
- It argued that gold and silver have already begun to reflect a broad central-bank consensus that fiat currencies are steadily losing credibility.
- The authors said gold and other resource commodities are absorbing liquidity more effectively than Bitcoin for now, and that Bitcoin is unlikely to see major excess returns before large-scale liquidity expansion is fully priced in.
- For the third and fourth quarters, the report stayed constructive on rigid-supply resources such as copper, electricity, gold, and some nonferrous metal assets in the RMB market.
- The report also said the joint U.S.-Japan currency intervention and related policy interactions are worth watching for clues about future Fed behavior.
Metrics Ventures' monthly market note argues that the current environment is being shaped by a broad weakening in fiat currencies, especially the U.S. dollar, alongside continued pressure in credit markets. In its view, bond and currency markets are still signaling caution even as equities remain relatively firm, creating a split picture across asset classes.
The report says gold and silver have already started to price in declining confidence in fiat currencies, and it treats these metals as preferred safe-haven and liquidity-absorbing assets at present. It also places copper, electricity, and selected nonferrous metals in a constructive category for the third and fourth quarters, citing rigid supply constraints.
On digital assets, the report is more restrained. It says Bitcoin is unlikely to generate major excess returns until large-scale liquidity release and the marginal growth rate of AI are more fully reflected in prices. Overall, the market stance is bullish on resource assets and gold, which the report frames as positive for commodity-linked stocks, neutral to mixed for crypto in the near term, and supportive for precious metals in gold and FX terms.
Metrics Ventures 市场观察：当“货币贬值竞赛”成为常态时，如何选择避险资产？
Metrics Ventures这篇月度市场观察认为，当前市场环境正受到法定货币普遍走弱，尤其是美元走软，以及信用市场持续承压的共同影响。报告指出，债券和货币市场仍在释放谨慎信号，而美股相对坚挺，形成了不同资产之间的分化。
报告认为，黄金和白银已经开始反映对法定货币信心下降的定价，因此更接近当前阶段的避险和流动性吸收资产。对于三、四季度，报告对铜、电力以及部分有色金属保持积极看法，理由是全球供应链中的刚性供给约束仍然存在。
在数字资产方面，报告态度相对保守，认为在大规模流动性释放和AI边际增长放缓被更充分计入之前，比特币较难出现明显超额收益。整体来看，这篇文章对资源品和黄金偏多，对加密货币短期偏中性，若对应到市场影响，则对黄金和资源类股票偏利好。