Metrics Ventures Market Observation: How Safe-Haven Assets May Be Chosen When Currency Weakness Becomes the Norm
- Metrics Ventures said its July-August market note was extended after Warsh's July remarks and argued that the dollar's problems go beyond what a Fed chair can solve.
- The report said U.S. equities, bonds, and currencies are sending different signals, with equities staying resilient while bond and currency markets continue to show skepticism.
- It said gold and silver have begun to bottom earlier and reflect a broad central bank consensus in an era of currency debasement.
- The note remained bullish on gold, copper, electricity, and other resource assets with rigid supply, and said some nonferrous metals in RMB markets merit attention.
- It said major excess returns in digital currency markets are unlikely before large liquidity release and AI's marginal growth slowdown are fully priced in.
- The report also highlighted the possible market implications of U.S.-Japan currency intervention and FIMA-related liquidity release for future Fed behavior.
Metrics Ventures' July-August market observation argues that the U.S. dollar's structural pressure is unlikely to be fixed quickly by central-bank communication alone. It says equities, bonds, and currencies are currently sending different messages: stocks remain relatively firm, while bond and foreign-exchange markets continue to discount credit and currency risk.
On safe-haven assets, the report says gold and silver have already shown early bottoming behavior and should be read as part of a broader consensus that fiat currencies are being weakened over time. It remains constructive on gold and other resource assets with tight supply, including copper and electricity, and also notes that some nonferrous-metal assets in RMB markets deserve attention.
For digital assets, the report is less optimistic in the near term. It says major excess returns in crypto are unlikely before a larger liquidity release is fully priced in and before the slowdown in AI-related marginal growth is reflected in valuations. For markets, the stance is broadly bullish for gold and resource-linked equities, neutral to positive for selected commodity and nonferrous names, and cautious for crypto in the short term.
Metrics Ventures 市场观察：当“货币竞次贬值”成为常态时，避险资产该如何选择？
Metrics Ventures 这篇 7 月至 8 月的市场观察认为，美元承受的是结构性压力，单靠央行口径并不能很快缓解。报告指出，当前股市、债市和汇市传递的信号并不一致：股票相对坚挺，而债券和外汇市场仍在定价信用与货币风险。
在避险资产方面，报告称黄金和白银已经较早出现筑底迹象，更像是在反映一种更广泛的共识，即法币长期承压、持续走弱。报告继续看好黄金及其他供给约束较强的资源资产，包括铜和电力，并提到人民币市场中部分有色金属资产值得关注。
对数字资产，报告的近端态度相对谨慎。它认为，在更大规模的流动性释放被充分定价、以及 AI 边际增速放缓被市场吸收之前，加密货币市场较难出现显著超额收益。就市场影响而言，这份报告整体偏利好黄金和资源类股票，对部分大宗商品和有色金属品种偏正面，而对短期加密货币则偏中性到略偏空。