Metrics Ventures Market Observation: How Should Safe-Haven Assets Be Selected When the 'Currency Race to the Bottom' Becomes the Norm?
- The report says recent bond-market pricing has already reflected concerns about Warsh's July remarks and the broader weakness of the U.S. dollar.
- It argues that U.S. equities, bonds, and currencies are responding differently to credit issues, with equities still holding up while bond and currency markets remain more skeptical.
- The authors say gold and silver have bottomed earlier and interpret this as evidence of a central-bank consensus in an environment where Western currencies are weakening.
- The report expects copper, electricity, gold, and other resource-related assets to remain favored in Q3-Q4 because of tight supply and declining trust in fiat currencies.
- It says major excess returns in digital-currency markets are unlikely before a large liquidity release and AI's marginal growth rate are fully priced in.
- The report suggests that long positions in nonferrous resources could be attractive on a three-year horizon.
Metrics Ventures says the recent macro backdrop is characterized by continued pressure on fiat currencies and by market signals that differ across asset classes. In its view, U.S. equities have remained relatively detached from credit stress, while bond and currency markets have shown greater concern.
The report places more emphasis on gold and other resource assets as potential safe-haven or liquidity-absorbing holdings. It argues that gold and silver have already formed a healthy consolidation, and that tight supply conditions support copper, electricity, and related resource equities. The authors also say some RMB-listed nonferrous metal assets deserve attention.
On digital assets, the report is less constructive in the near term. It says major excess returns in crypto are unlikely before a large liquidity release and AI-related growth expectations are fully reflected. For markets, the stance is broadly supportive for gold and resource equities, and comparatively neutral to negative for Bitcoin and other digital currencies in the short run, while the implied weakening of fiat currencies can also weigh on FX sentiment.
Metrics Ventures 市场观察：当“货币竞相贬值”成为常态时，避险资产该如何选择？
Metrics Ventures 认为，当前宏观环境的特征是法币承压，而不同资产类别传递出的市场信号并不一致。报告指出，美股对信用压力的反应相对迟钝，债券和货币市场则表现得更为谨慎。
报告更强调黄金和其他资源类资产的避险和承接流动性属性。其观点是，黄金和白银已经完成较为健康的整理，而铜、电力以及相关资源股仍受到供应偏紧的支撑；部分人民币计价的有色金属资产也被认为值得关注。
对于数字资产，报告对短期前景相对保守。它认为，在大规模流动性释放以及 AI 边际增长预期充分定价之前，加密货币市场较难出现明显超额收益。就市场影响而言，这一判断总体利多黄金和资源股，短期对比特币等数字货币偏中性到偏空，同时也反映出法币走弱对外汇市场情绪的压力。