Metrics Ventures Market Observation: When 'Currency Race to the Bottom' Becomes the Norm, How Should Safe-Haven Assets Be Selected?
- Metrics Ventures said its July-August market note was extended because Warsh's July remarks were considered important, and it argued that the U.S. dollar's problems can no longer be fixed by any Fed chair alone.
- The report said U.S. equities, bonds, and currencies are pricing credit risks differently: equities have stayed relatively resilient, while bond and currency markets have remained skeptical.
- It described gold and silver as having already bottomed early, which it interprets as evidence of a broad central-bank consensus that Western currencies are being debased.
- The report remained constructive on rigid-supply resource assets such as copper, electricity, and gold for Q3-Q4, while saying digital assets are unlikely to generate major excess returns before liquidity conditions and AI growth expectations are fully reflected.
- It also said the bull trend in RMB assets remains intact and pointed to nonferrous resource assets in the RMB market as worthy of attention.
- From a macro view, it highlighted recent U.S.-Japan currency intervention and the interaction between Warsh and Bessent as signals worth watching for future Fed policy.
Metrics Ventures' monthly market note argues that the current macro environment is defined by a broad currency debasement trend, with the dollar's structural problems unlikely to be resolved by Fed communication alone. It said the bond market has already reflected this through wider credit spreads, and that the path ahead is likely to involve repeated disturbances.
The report describes a split between asset classes: U.S. equities have remained relatively stable after some leverage was cleared, while bonds and currencies continue to signal caution. It also says gold and silver have already begun to bottom out, which it views as a sign that central banks broadly acknowledge the pressure on fiat currencies.
On positioning, the note stays constructive on hard-asset themes, especially gold and other resources with tight supply such as copper and electricity. It also says some nonferrous resource assets in the RMB market may deserve attention, while the trend in RMB assets remains intact.
For digital assets, the report is less optimistic in the near term, saying major excess returns are unlikely before liquidity expansion and AI growth expectations are fully priced in. Market impact is therefore mixed: positive for gold and resource equities, cautious or neutral for Bitcoin and other crypto assets, and generally supportive for commodities tied to supply constraints.
Metrics Ventures 市场观察：当“货币竞底”成为常态，避险资产应如何选择？
Metrics Ventures这篇市场观察认为，当前宏观环境的核心特征是“货币竞底”加剧，美元的结构性问题并非单靠美联储口头表态就能解决。文中称，债券市场已经通过信用利差走阔体现了这一点，而后续过程大概率还会伴随反复扰动。
报告将资产表现概括为分化：美股在部分杠杆出清后仍保持相对坚挺，而债券和货币市场则持续释放谨慎信号。与此同时，文中认为黄金和白银已经较早见底，并将其视为央行普遍承认法币承压的体现。
在配置方向上，报告继续看好硬资产主题，尤其是黄金，以及铜、电力等供给刚性的资源品。它还提到，人民币市场中的部分有色资源资产值得关注，而人民币资产的整体牛市趋势仍然存在。
对于数字资产，报告态度相对保守，认为在流动性扩张和AI增长预期被充分定价之前，加密资产难以出现显著超额收益。对应到市场影响，这份报告整体对黄金和资源股偏利好，对比特币等加密资产偏中性，对供给受限的大宗商品相关资产则偏利好。