Mystery Firm Poll in the U.S. Underscores the Dangers of Unverified Election Polls
- A little-known company called Median Strategies published false-looking polls in at least three states and later admitted the results were fabricated.
- One of the bogus polls claimed Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass was leading City Council member Nithya Raman by about 12 points, and Bass's campaign had shared it online before the fraud was revealed.
- Median Strategies said on its website that it was created as a short-term social experiment to see how supposed polling information could spread through political information channels without independent verification.
- Major polling aggregators, including The New York Times, Real Clear Politics and FiftyPlusOne, did not include the polls because the company did not provide basic transparency about its methods or who was behind it.
- Polling experts said the case shows how easy it has become to make invented numbers look legitimate, especially in a media environment crowded with polls from campaigns, outside groups and firms using unclear methods.
A previously unknown firm, Median Strategies, posted polls online in California, Wisconsin and Nevada, then admitted to the Los Angeles Times that the results were fake. The company later described itself as a short-term social experiment meant to test how unverified polling information can spread through political media channels.
The California poll was especially notable because it was shared by Karen Bass's campaign and circulated by the California Post before it was exposed as fabricated. Bass's campaign later removed the post and said any bad-faith attempt to influence elections should be investigated and prosecuted.
The episode also showed how polling aggregators try to screen for credibility. The New York Times, Real Clear Politics and FiftyPlusOne did not include the polls because Median Strategies did not provide basic details such as who was behind the company or enough information about its methodology.
Polling researchers said the case is unusual but not without precedent. They noted that election polling is a trust-based industry and that low-transparency surveys can spread widely even when the underlying methods are unclear or questionable.
美国神秘公司发布的民调凸显未经核实选举民调的风险
一家此前并不知名的公司 Median Strategies 在加利福尼亚、威斯康星和内华达发布了民调，之后向《洛杉矶时报》承认这些结果是假的。该公司随后在网站上称，这是一项短期社会实验，旨在测试未经核实的民调信息如何在政治媒体渠道中传播。
加州那份民调尤其引人注意，因为在被揭穿为伪造之前，它曾被卡伦·巴斯的竞选团队转发，也被《California Post》报道和传播。巴斯竞选团队后来删除了相关帖子，并表示，任何恶意影响选举的行为都应被调查并依法追究。
这一事件也显示了民调汇总平台如何筛选可信信息。《纽约时报》、Real Clear Politics 和 FiftyPlusOne 都没有收录这些民调，因为 Median Strategies 没有提供公司幕后人员或足够详细的方法说明等基本信息。
民调研究人员说，这类事件并不常见，但并非没有先例。他们指出，选举民调行业依赖信任，而在方法不清的情况下，透明度不足的民调仍可能迅速传播。