Nonfarm payrolls miss ignites rate-cut trades, optical interconnects start to steal storage's thunder
- US July non-farm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, missing market expectations for an increase of 80,000.
- The probability of a September Fed rate hike dropped from around 55% to 40% following the employment data release.
- US equities rebounded strongly, with the Dow rising 0.28%, the Nasdaq gaining 1.30%, and the S&P 500 adding 0.62%.
- AI infrastructure sectors like software and optical communications strengthened, while the storage sector experienced a correction.
- Gold prices surged 2.3% last Friday, marking a weekly gain of over 7%, with spot gold standing above $4,300.
On Friday, US July non-farm payrolls fell by 23,000, significantly below the expected increase of 80,000. This disappointing data led to a sharp reduction in market expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September, with probabilities dropping from approximately 55% to 40%. Following the release of the employment figures, US equities experienced a notable rebound, with the Dow Jones rising 0.28%, the Nasdaq increasing by 1.30%, and the S&P 500 adding 0.62%, reaching a new all-time closing high.
In the AI infrastructure sector, there has been a noticeable shift, with software and optical communications gaining strength while the storage sector faced corrections. Discussions around 'short storage, long optical' trades have emerged as market sentiment shifts. Companies such as Coherent and AAOI saw significant gains, while storage companies like Seagate and Western Digital experienced declines.
Gold prices also saw a substantial increase, with spot gold rising 2.3% on Friday, closing above $4,300, and marking a weekly gain of over 7%. This performance represents gold's best weekly results of the year, as global gold ETF holdings increased by 24 tonnes since July 20, indicating strong investor interest in the precious metal.
非农就业数据不及预期引发降息交易，光学互联开始取代存储的主导地位
上周五，美国7月非农就业人数减少23,000，远低于预期增加80,000。这一令人失望的数据导致市场对美联储9月加息的预期急剧下降，概率从约55%降至40%。在就业数据发布后，美国股市显著反弹，道琼斯指数上涨0.28%，纳斯达克上涨1.30%，标准普尔500指数上涨0.62%，创下新的历史收盘高点。
在人工智能基础设施领域，市场发生了明显变化，软件和光学通信获得增强，而存储领域则面临修正。市场上出现了“做空存储，做多光学”的交易讨论，Coherent和AAOI等公司大幅上涨，而Seagate和Western Digital等存储公司则出现下跌。
黄金价格也大幅上涨，现货黄金上周五上涨2.3%，收于4,300美元以上，周涨幅超过7%。这一表现标志着黄金今年最佳的周表现，自7月20日以来，全球黄金ETF持有量增加了24吨，显示出投资者对这一贵金属的强烈兴趣。