Nonfarm Payrolls Miss Ignites Rate-Cut Trades, Optical Interconnects Start to Steal Storage's Thunder
- US July non-farm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, below the expected increase of 80,000.
- The probability of a September Fed rate hike dropped from around 55% to 40% after the data release.
- US equities rebounded strongly, with the Dow rising 0.28%, the Nasdaq gaining 1.30%, and the S&P 500 adding 0.62%.
- AI infrastructure is experiencing a shift, with optical communications strengthening while the storage sector corrects.
- Market discussions have emerged around 'short storage, long optical' trades.
Last Friday, US July non-farm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, significantly lower than the market's expectation of an increase of 80,000. This disappointing employment data led to a rapid reduction in bets on a September Fed rate hike, with the probability decreasing from around 55% to 40%. Following the release of the data, US equities experienced a strong rebound, with the Dow rising 0.28%, the Nasdaq gaining 1.30%, and the S&P 500 adding 0.62% to reach another all-time closing high.
In the wake of the weak employment figures, attention has shifted to the upcoming US July CPI release, with expectations for a slight decline in both headline and core CPI. Citigroup suggested that if core inflation softens for a second consecutive month, the possibility of a September rate hike could be ruled out, while Bank of America warned that core services inflation might rebound.
Meanwhile, in the AI infrastructure sector, there has been a notable shift in market sentiment, with optical communications gaining strength while the storage sector has seen a correction. Discussions around 'short storage, long optical' trades have emerged, indicating a potential strategic pivot among investors as they reassess the market dynamics.
非农就业数据不及预期引发降息交易，光互连开始抢占存储市场的风头
上周五，美国7月非农就业人数意外下降23,000，远低于市场预期的增加80,000。这一令人失望的就业数据导致市场迅速降低了对9月美联储加息的预期，概率从约55%降至40%。数据发布后，美国股市强劲反弹，道琼斯指数上涨0.28%，纳斯达克上涨1.30%，标准普尔500指数上涨0.62%，再创历史新高。
在疲弱的就业数据发布后，市场的关注转向即将发布的美国7月CPI，预计整体和核心CPI将略有下降。花旗集团表示，如果核心通胀连续第二个月放缓，9月加息的可能性可能会被排除，而美银则警告核心服务通胀可能会反弹。
与此同时，在人工智能基础设施领域，市场情绪出现显著变化，光通信增强而存储行业出现调整。市场上出现了关于“做空存储，做多光学”的交易讨论，表明投资者在重新评估市场动态时可能会进行战略性转变。