Nvidia answers earnings, Warsh decides valuation: How will Jackson Hole affect U.S. stocks?
- The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will focus on 'Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.'
- Kevin Warsh will speak at Jackson Hole for the first time as Fed Chair, having taken office in May 2023.
- Long-term interest rates in the U.S. have risen significantly, with the 30-year Treasury yield recently exceeding 5.3%.
- The market is observing whether the Fed will classify the current energy inflation as a temporary shock or a structural risk.
- Tech stocks are under pressure due to rising long-term Treasury yields, which affect funding costs.
Every year in late August, central bank officials, economists, and financial market participants focus on the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. This year's theme is 'Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.' However, with inflation above target and long-term interest rates high, the Fed's response to expensive money is a pressing concern.
Kevin Warsh will deliver his first speech as Fed Chair at Jackson Hole, having reduced the forward guidance that markets had become accustomed to. His address is expected to provide insight into the policy framework of the 'Warsh Fed.' The current economic environment is challenging, with unresolved risks from global conflicts and rising Treasury yields.
The rise in oil prices and its impact on inflation is a critical issue to watch. Brent crude briefly surpassed $90 per barrel, and U.S. gasoline prices have risen significantly since the conflict began in February. The Fed's interpretation of this inflation, whether as a temporary supply shock or a more permanent structural issue, will be crucial.
Additionally, the increasing long-term U.S. Treasury yields are putting pressure on tech stocks. The competition for long-term capital is intensifying globally, driven by government financing needs and the capital expenditure cycle in AI. This trend is significant for investors in the tech sector as it affects funding costs and market dynamics.
英伟达回应财报，沃什决定估值：杰克逊霍尔将如何影响美国股市？
每年八月底，中央银行官员、经济学家和金融市场参与者都会关注杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会。今年的主题是“金融创新：对支付和政策的影响”。然而，随着通胀高于目标和长期利率上升，美联储对昂贵资金的应对成为迫切关注的问题。
沃什将首次以美联储主席身份在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲，他减少了市场习惯的前瞻性指引。他的讲话预计将为“沃什美联储”的政策框架提供见解。目前的经济环境充满挑战，全球冲突带来的风险尚未解决，国债收益率不断上升。
油价上涨及其对通胀的影响是一个关键问题。布伦特原油价格曾短暂超过90美元每桶，自冲突开始以来，美国汽油价格显著上涨。美联储对这种通胀的解读，无论是视为临时供应冲击还是更持久的结构性问题，将至关重要。
此外，长期美国国债收益率的上升对科技股施加了压力。全球对长期资本的竞争正在加剧，政府融资需求和人工智能的资本支出周期推动了这一趋势。这一趋势对科技投资者来说意义重大，因为它影响融资成本和市场动态。