Six months on, the Iran war has changed the Middle East, but not in the way its architects had hoped
- The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran six months ago with the aim of transforming the Middle East through military force.
- Iran survived the attacks and has gained leverage in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Gulf Arab nations are reconsidering their reliance on U.S. security due to perceived gaps.
- Israel has faced challenges in defeating its enemies and risks a rift with the U.S.
- Hopes for normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia have diminished further.
It’s been six months since the United States and Israel attacked Iran with the perennial goal of transforming the Middle East through military force. The region has changed, but not in the way they had hoped. The Islamic Republic survived the assassination of its top leaders and weeks of heavy bombing, and found a potent form of leverage in the Strait of Hormuz.
Gulf Arab nations saw worrying gaps open up in the American security umbrella they have relied on for decades — and some are looking at alternatives. Israel has once again thrashed its enemies without defeating them, and after nearly three years of war in Gaza and new land seizures, is at risk of a generational rupture with the U.S., its closest ally.
Hopes of normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia — another enduring U.S. and Israeli aspiration — have dimmed even further. When they attacked Iran on Feb. 28, the U.S. and Israel hoped to topple its clerical leadership and replace it with a pro-Western government. Instead, they’ve ended up with a “hardened and very radical regime.”
六个月后，伊朗战争改变了中东，但并非其策划者所希望的那样
自美国和以色列六个月前对伊朗发动攻击以来，他们一直希望通过军事力量改变中东。该地区确实发生了变化，但并非他们所希望的那样。伊朗在高层领导人被暗杀和数周的重轰炸中幸存下来，并在霍尔木兹海峡找到了强有力的影响力。
海湾阿拉伯国家感受到美国安全保护伞出现令人担忧的缺口，部分国家开始考虑替代方案。以色列再次打击了敌人，但未能彻底击败他们，经过近三年的加沙战争和新的土地夺取，以色列面临与其最亲密盟友美国的代际裂痕风险。
与沙特阿拉伯正常化关系的希望进一步减弱。当他们在2月28日对伊朗发动攻击时，美国和以色列希望推翻其宗教领导层，并用亲西方政府取而代之。相反，他们却得到了一个“更加坚定和极端的政权”。