US retail sales slump unexpectedly and sharply after a summer tax-refund boost fades
- U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July, the biggest monthly drop since May 2025, after a revised 0.2% increase in June.
- Economists had expected a small rise, so the report came in weaker than forecast.
- The decline followed spending boosts in April and May, when consumers used government tax refunds.
- Excluding gas stations and auto dealers, retail sales fell 0.2%, while the control-group measure used for GDP calculations dropped 0.4%.
- Sales fell at gas stations, motor vehicle and parts dealers, electronics and appliance stores, and online retailers, while clothing, furniture, building materials, and restaurants posted gains.
- The weaker retail report, along with soft jobs data and slightly worse consumer sentiment, led some economists to cut growth forecasts for the July-September quarter.
U.S. retail sales fell unexpectedly in July, declining 0.6% from the prior month after a revised 0.2% gain in June. The drop was the largest since May 2025 and came in below economists’ expectations for a slight increase.
The report followed stronger consumer spending in April and May, when households benefited from government tax refunds. This time, weakness showed up in several areas, including gas stations, auto dealers, electronics and appliance stores, and online retailers.
The Commerce Department data also showed that retail sales excluding gas stations and auto dealers fell 0.2%, while the control-group measure used in GDP calculations declined 0.4%. Some economists said the numbers point to signs of consumer fatigue, though others said it is too early to conclude that spending has rolled over.
The softer retail reading may be a mild negative for consumer-facing stocks and a broader signal of slower U.S. growth, while also supporting the case for markets that expect cooling demand. Even so, the report included gains in clothing, furniture, building materials, and restaurants, and several economists still said the consumer remains broadly resilient.
夏季退税提振消退后，美国零售销售意外大幅下滑
美国7月零售销售意外下滑，环比下降0.6%，6月数据则被上修为增长0.2%。这是自2025年5月以来的最大月度跌幅，也低于经济学家此前预期的小幅上升。
这一下滑出现在4月和5月消费走强之后，当时家庭支出部分受政府退税带动。本月疲弱主要体现在加油站、汽车经销商、电子和家电商店以及线上零售等领域。
美国商务部数据还显示，剔除加油站和汽车经销商后的零售销售下降0.2%，用于GDP核算的核心零售销售指标下降0.4%。一些经济学家认为，这表明消费者出现疲态；也有人表示，现在判断消费已经明显转弱还为时过早。
从市场角度看，这份偏弱的零售数据对消费类股票可能略偏利空，也可能被视为美国增长放缓的信号；同时，它对预期需求降温的市场判断偏中性到略利好。尽管如此，报告中仍有服装、家具、建材和餐饮等品类增长，且部分经济学家认为消费者整体仍具韧性。