US retail sales slump unexpectedly and sharply after a summer tax-refund boost fades
- U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July, the biggest monthly drop since May 2025, after a revised 0.2% gain in June.
- Economists had expected a small increase, making the July decline an unexpected miss.
- The pullback came after stronger spending in April and May, when consumers benefited from government tax refunds, and after spending around World Cup and Amazon Prime Day promotions.
- Sales fell at gas stations, motor vehicle and parts dealers, electronics and appliance stores, and online retailers, while clothing, furniture and building materials posted gains.
- The weak retail report, along with softer jobs data and lower consumer sentiment, raised concerns that U.S. economic growth may be slowing.
- For markets, the report is potentially bearish for U.S. stocks, especially consumer-linked shares, while it could support rate-cut expectations and thus be mildly favorable for bonds and other risk-sensitive assets.
U.S. retail sales fell sharply in July, declining 0.6% from the prior month, according to Commerce Department data released Friday. That was the biggest monthly drop since May 2025 and came after a revised 0.2% increase in June. Economists had been looking for a small gain, so the report surprised on the weak side.
The decline followed stronger spending in April and May, when consumers benefited from government tax refunds, and came after heavy spending tied to the World Cup and Amazon Prime Day promotions. The report added to concern that consumers, long a key source of support for the economy, may be losing momentum.
Sales fell at gas stations, motor vehicle and parts dealers, electronics and appliance stores, and online retailers. Excluding gas stations and auto dealers, retail sales slipped 0.2%, and the control-group measure used to calculate gross domestic product dropped 0.4%. The weakness also came alongside softer jobs data and a decline in consumer sentiment. For markets, the data is potentially bearish for U.S. stocks, especially consumer-facing shares, while it may slightly support rate-cut expectations.
美国零售销售意外大幅下滑，夏季退税刺激消退后消费回落
美国商务部公布的数据显示，7月零售销售环比下降0.6%，为2025年5月以来最大单月跌幅。6月数据则被上修为增长0.2%。这一下滑幅度明显低于经济学家此前预期的小幅增长。
此前4月和5月的消费曾较强，主要受政府退税带动；之后又叠加了世界杯和亚马逊Prime Day促销带来的支出。报道指出，这一变化加剧了外界对美国消费者动能减弱的担忧，而消费一直是支撑美国经济的重要力量。
从细项看，汽油站、汽车及零部件经销商、电子和家电商店、线上零售销售都出现下滑。剔除汽油站和汽车经销商后，7月零售销售下降0.2%；用于计算GDP的“控制组”指标下降0.4%。这份疲弱数据还与较弱的就业数据和消费者信心回落同时出现。对市场而言，这一结果对美国股市、尤其是消费相关股票，潜在偏利空；同时也可能强化降息预期。