US stocks and gold rise together, Bitcoin rebound absent, has the bottom signal appeared?
- Bitcoin has been in a correction since hitting an all-time high of around $126,000 last October.
- While U.S. stocks and gold have recovered, Bitcoin has continued to trade sideways without joining the rebound.
- Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin's price has fluctuated between $62,000 and $66,000, showing weakness compared to the S&P 500's 5% rise.
- ETF inflows into Bitcoin have improved, with net inflows reaching $854 million last week, but this has not led to a price rebound.
- Miners and crypto companies are facing sustained selling pressure, leading some to sell Bitcoin assets to cover cash flow needs.
Since reaching an all-time high of around $126,000 last October, Bitcoin has struggled to recover and has been trading sideways. In contrast, U.S. stocks and gold have recently seen a recovery, with the S&P 500 and Dow hitting new all-time highs this week, primarily driven by tech stocks. Spot gold has also rallied, briefly surpassing the $4,400 per ounce mark.
Despite the positive movements in traditional assets, Bitcoin has not participated in this rebound, remaining in a narrow trading range between $62,000 and $66,000 over the past month. The divergence is notable, as the S&P 500 has risen about 5% in the same period, while Bitcoin has fallen by 20%.
Recent inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have been significant, with net inflows reaching $854 million last week, marking the best weekly performance since April. However, these inflows have not translated into a price increase for Bitcoin, which continues to face selling pressure from miners and crypto companies adjusting their strategies amid rising operational costs.
Market analysts suggest that while some bottom signals are appearing for Bitcoin, confirmation of a cycle bottom is still needed. Historically, it takes about 12 to 13 months for Bitcoin to reach a final bottom after a cycle top, indicating that the current cycle low may not arrive until late 2026.
美国股票和黄金共同上涨，比特币反弹缺席，底部信号是否出现？
自去年十月达到约126,000美元的历史高点以来，比特币一直难以恢复，处于横盘交易中。相比之下，美国股票和黄金最近经历了反弹，标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数本周创下新高，主要受到科技股的推动。现货黄金也上涨，短暂突破每盎司4,400美元的关口。
尽管传统资产表现积极，比特币并未参与反弹，过去一个月内价格在62,000美元和66,000美元之间窄幅波动。值得注意的是，标准普尔500指数在同一时期上涨了约5%，而比特币则下跌了20%。
最近比特币ETF的资金流入显著，上周净流入达到8.54亿美元，创下自四月以来的最佳周表现。然而，这些流入并未转化为比特币价格的上涨，比特币仍面临来自矿工和加密公司的卖压，他们在运营成本上升的情况下调整策略。
市场分析师指出，尽管比特币出现了一些底部信号，但确认周期底部仍需时间。历史上，在周期高点之后，比特币通常需要约12到13个月才能达到最终底部，这表明当前周期低点可能要到2026年末才能到来。