US stocks and gold rise together, Bitcoin rebound absent, has the bottom signal appeared?
- Bitcoin has been in a correction since hitting an all-time high of around $126,000 last October.
- U.S. stocks and gold have recently recovered, with the S&P 500 and Dow reaching new all-time highs.
- Bitcoin's price has been consolidating sideways between $62,000 and $66,000 for the past 30 days.
- Despite increased on-chain activity and ETF inflows, Bitcoin has not experienced a price rebound.
- Selling pressure from miners and crypto companies continues to impact the Bitcoin market.
Bitcoin has remained stagnant since reaching an all-time high of approximately $126,000 last October, while U.S. stocks and gold have recently seen significant recoveries. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones have both hit new all-time highs, driven by strong performances in technology and semiconductor sectors. In contrast, Bitcoin has been trading sideways without participating in this upward momentum, oscillating between $62,000 and $66,000 over the past month.
Despite a surge in on-chain activity, including a record number of new Bitcoin wallets created, the price of Bitcoin has not rebounded. Recent ETF inflows have been notable, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing substantial net inflows, but these have not translated into price increases for Bitcoin. Analysts suggest that the influx of funds has been largely influenced by custody demand changes and improved market sentiment, yet selling pressure from miners remains a significant factor.
The market analysis indicates that miners and crypto DAT companies are under pressure to liquidate some of their Bitcoin holdings to manage cash flow and operational costs. This has led to a decrease in the amount of Bitcoin held by these entities, further contributing to the selling pressure in the market. Overall, while some indicators suggest potential bottom-fishing signals for Bitcoin, confirmation of a cycle bottom is still awaited, with historical patterns indicating that the final bottom may not occur until late 2026.
美国股票和黄金共同上涨，比特币反弹缺席，底部信号是否出现？
比特币自去年十月达到约126,000美元的历史高点以来一直处于停滞状态，而美国股票和黄金最近经历了显著的回升。标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数均创下新历史高点，主要受到科技和半导体行业强劲表现的推动。相比之下，比特币在过去一个月内一直在62,000美元和66,000美元之间横盘整理，未能参与这一上升势头。
尽管链上活动激增，包括创纪录的新比特币钱包数量，但比特币的价格并未反弹。最近的ETF资金流入显著，美国现货比特币ETF出现了大量净流入，但这些并未转化为比特币价格的上涨。分析人士指出，资金流入主要受到保管需求变化和市场情绪改善的影响，但矿工的卖压仍然是一个重要因素。
市场分析表明，矿工和加密DAT公司面临压力，需出售部分比特币持有以管理现金流和运营成本。这导致这些实体持有的比特币数量减少，进一步加剧了市场的卖压。总体而言，尽管一些指标暗示比特币可能出现底部信号，但确认周期底部仍需等待，历史模式表明最终底部可能要到2026年末才会出现。