USD stablecoins may further strengthen the dollar's dominance and exacerbate financial fragility
- The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 72% in 2000 to 57% in 2026.
- USD stablecoins are expected to attract more emerging market firms into the dollar debt market.
- The share of emerging market firms using dollar financing could rise from 36% to 88% with the introduction of stablecoins.
- Stablecoins may increase secondary market fragmentation and liquidity fragility in the international monetary system.
- USD stablecoins could weaken monetary policy transmission and amplify the volatility of financial markets.
At the 2026 Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Conference, a paper titled "Financial Innovation and the International Monetary System" was presented by Cornell University professor Eswar Prasad and co-authors Gordon Liao and Tony Zhang. The paper discusses the current status of the dollar in global finance, noting its reduced share in foreign exchange reserves but continued dominance in cross-border payments and international financing.
The authors argue that innovations represented by USD stablecoins are unlikely to diminish the dollar's status. Instead, they may lower the cost of accessing dollar-denominated settlement assets, thereby encouraging more emerging market firms to engage with dollar financing.
The paper provides a model suggesting that the proportion of emerging market firms using dollar financing could increase significantly with the adoption of stablecoins. However, it also highlights potential risks, indicating that stablecoins might contribute to market fragmentation and liquidity issues within the international monetary system. Additionally, comments from Catherine L. Mann of the Bank of England suggest that these stablecoins could complicate monetary policy transmission and heighten financial market volatility.
美元稳定币可能进一步增强美元的主导地位并加剧金融脆弱性
在2026年杰克逊霍尔全球中央银行会议上，康奈尔大学教授埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德及其合著者戈登·廖和托尼·张发表了一篇题为《金融创新与国际货币体系》的论文。该论文讨论了美元在全球金融中的现状，指出其在外汇储备中的份额有所下降，但在跨境支付和国际融资中的主导地位依然稳固。
作者认为，美元稳定币所代表的创新不太可能削弱美元的地位。相反，它们可能降低获取美元结算资产的成本，从而鼓励更多新兴市场企业参与美元融资。
该论文提供了一个模型，表明随着稳定币的采用，新兴市场企业使用美元融资的比例可能会显著增加。然而，论文也强调了潜在风险，指出稳定币可能会加剧国际货币体系中的市场碎片化和流动性问题。此外，来自英格兰银行的凯瑟琳·曼的评论表明，这些稳定币可能会使货币政策传导变得复杂，并加剧金融市场的波动性。