VanEck Says Bitcoin Correction May Be Nearing Its End as 8 of 12 Capitulation Signals Flash
- VanEck's research team said 8 of the 12 capitulation indicators it tracks have now flashed, suggesting Bitcoin's nearly 11-month correction may be ending.
- Bitcoin has traded between $58,000 and $66,500 since June and was about $64,700, still roughly 48% below its October 2025 all-time high, according to the report.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $300 million in net inflows on Monday, their strongest single-day performance since May 5.
- VanEck said the average time from peak to maximum drawdown in the previous three Bitcoin bear market cycles was 12.7 months, and the current cycle is in its 11th month.
- The firm said historical cycle patterns could point to an accumulation phase between September and November, but noted that short-term returns after clustered capitulation signals have not always been strong.
- Long-term holders sold about 356,000 BTC over the past 30 days, cutting their holdings to 11.84 million BTC and pushing their share of circulating supply below 60% for the first time in months.
VanEck's research team said 8 of the 12 capitulation indicators it tracks have flashed, which it said suggests Bitcoin's nearly 11-month correction may be approaching an end. The report also noted that Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range since June.
The article said Bitcoin was trading around $64,700, after moving between $58,000 and $66,500 in recent months, and that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $300 million in net inflows on Monday, their strongest single-day showing since May 5.
VanEck compared the current move with earlier Bitcoin bear market cycles, saying the average time from peak to maximum drawdown was 12.7 months in the previous three cycles and that the current cycle is now in its 11th month. Based on that pattern, the firm said the market could enter an accumulation phase between September and November.
The firm also cautioned that clustered capitulation signals have not reliably led to strong near-term performance in the past. It said long-term holders reduced their Bitcoin holdings by about 356,000 BTC over the past 30 days, which may be a mixed signal for crypto markets: the ETF inflows are mildly supportive, while the ongoing selling by long-term holders is a modest negative near term.
VanEck称比特币回调或接近尾声，12个抛售信号中已有8个触发
VanEck研究团队表示，其跟踪的12个市场抛售信号中已有8个触发，这被视为比特币接近结束近11个月回调的迹象。报道还提到，比特币自6月以来一直处于相对窄幅区间波动。
文章称，比特币最新约在64,700美元，近几个月主要在58,000美元至66,500美元之间运行；与此同时，美国现货比特币ETF周一录得近3亿美元净流入，为5月5日以来单日表现最强。
VanEck对比了此前几轮比特币熊市周期，称过去三轮周期中，从价格峰值到最大回撤的平均时间为12.7个月，而当前周期已进入第11个月。基于这一历史节奏，该机构认为市场可能在9月至11月进入积累阶段。
不过，VanEck也提醒，历史上当抛售信号集中触发时，短期表现未必强劲。报道还称，过去30天长期持有者减持约35.6万枚比特币，因此对加密货币市场的潜在影响偏中性略偏正面：ETF净流入提供支撑，但长期持有者减仓构成一定压力。