Analyst: Bitcoin UTXO profit ratio rebounds on supply restructuring, easing pressure but no confirmed reversal
- CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said the share of profitable Bitcoin UTXOs rose from 48% to 53% over the past month.
- Despite the rebound, 53% remains at a deeply stressed level and is still well below the 365-day moving average.
- Nearly half of Bitcoin UTXOs are still in loss, indicating that market stress has not fully cleared.
- The rise in the metric mainly suggests easing pressure on holders rather than confirmed new demand.
- After the Coldcard hack, long-term holder supply fell by 134,800 BTC, which may partly reflect migration of older coins rather than outright distribution.
- The report said the data points more to supply restructuring after a major stress event than to confirmed capitulation or a new uptrend.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said in a weekly report that the share of profitable Bitcoin UTXOs has risen from 48% to 53% over the past month. He described the change as an improvement, but noted that the level is still far below the 365-day moving average.
The report said nearly half of all UTXOs remain in loss, which indicates that market stress has not fully disappeared. The increase in profitable UTXOs was presented as evidence of easing pressure on holders rather than proof of fresh demand.
Adler also pointed to a 134,800 BTC decline in long-term holder supply after the Coldcard hack. He said part of that movement may reflect older coins changing addresses or migrating, so it should not automatically be read as distribution by long-term holders.
Overall, the report characterized the current state as supply restructuring after a major stress event, not a confirmed reversal. For the crypto market, the signal is neutral to mildly supportive: pressure appears to be easing, but the data does not yet confirm a new upward trend or a clear entry point.
分析师：比特币UTXO盈利比例反弹源于供给结构重组，压力缓解但未确认反转
CryptoQuant分析师Axel Adler Jr.在周报中表示，比特币UTXO的盈利比例在过去一个月里从48%回升到53%。他认为这一变化说明市场有所改善，但53%仍远低于365日均线。
报告指出，接近一半的UTXO仍处于亏损状态，这意味着市场压力并未完全消退。盈利UTXO比例上升，被解读为持有者承压减轻，而不是已经确认出现新的需求。
Adler还提到，在Coldcard黑客事件后，长期持有者供应减少了134,800枚BTC。他表示，其中一部分变化可能只是旧币地址迁移，不应直接理解为长期持有者在抛售。
整体来看，报告将当前情况概括为重大压力事件后的供给结构重组，而不是已经确认的反转。对加密货币市场而言，这一信号偏中性到略偏利好：压力在缓解，但数据仍不足以确认新的上升趋势或明确的入场时点。