Economic Repercussions of the War in Iran: Who Is Winning and Who Is Losing
- Six months after the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran in late February, the most dire economic predictions have not materialized, though the global economy has not remained entirely unaffected.
- Stock market investors who did not panic have benefited, with major indices recovering significantly since late March, gaining 19-27% despite initial five-week losses following the conflict's start.
- Oil prices rose from $72 to nearly $120 per barrel due to disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, remaining about 20% above pre-war levels and driving up costs for fuel, airline tickets, and consumer goods.
- Clean energy adoption has accelerated globally, with electric vehicle sales reaching record highs in some regions and 26 countries announcing clean energy and electrification measures in response to the war.
- Low-income populations have been hit hardest, as disruptions to fertilizer supplies from the Persian Gulf have driven up agricultural input costs, threatening food security for the poorest communities.
Six months after the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran in late February, the most catastrophic economic predictions have not come to pass, though the global economy continues to feel the conflict's effects. While oil prices spiked and stock markets initially declined sharply, the recovery since late March has been substantial, with major indices posting gains of 19-27% and potentially achieving their fourth consecutive year of advances.
The war's most visible economic impact has been on petroleum markets. Oil prices surged from $72 to nearly $120 per barrel due to disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and remain approximately 20% above pre-war levels. This has cascading effects on consumers, particularly those dependent on air travel, as aviation fuel costs have risen 70% compared to 2025, prompting airlines to increase ticket prices, baggage fees, and fuel surcharges while reducing routes.
The conflict has paradoxically accelerated the transition to clean energy. Electric vehicle sales have reached record levels in multiple regions, with growth rates exceeding 100% in some countries. The International Energy Agency projects that electric vehicles will represent 29% of global vehicle sales in 2026, up from 25% previously. Additionally, 26 countries and regions have announced clean energy and electrification initiatives in response to the war.
However, the poorest populations have borne the heaviest burden. Disruptions to fertilizer supplies from the Persian Gulf have driven up agricultural input costs at critical moments for farmers' planting decisions, threatening food security and exacerbating global hunger challenges. While privileged consumers may experience only minor economic inconvenience, vulnerable populations face significantly greater hardship from the conflict's economic consequences.
伊朗战争的经济影响：谁在获胜，谁在失败
美国和以色列在2月底开始轰炸伊朗六个月后，最具灾难性的经济预测并未实现，尽管全球经济继续感受到冲突的影响。虽然油价飙升，股市初期大幅下跌，但自3月底以来的反弹幅度巨大，主要指数涨幅达19-27%，可能实现连续第四年上涨。
战争最明显的经济影响体现在石油市场。由于霍尔木兹海峡运输中断，油价从每桶72美元飙升至近120美元，目前仍比战前水平高约20%。这对消费者产生了连锁反应，尤其是依赖航空旅行的人群。航空燃油成本较2025年上升70%，促使航空公司提高机票价格、行李费和燃油附加费，同时削减航线。
冲突反而加速了向清洁能源的转变。多个地区电动汽车销售创历史新高，部分国家增长率超过100%。国际能源署预测，2026年电动汽车将占全球汽车销售总量的29%，高于去年的25%。此外，26个国家和地区宣布了应对战争的清洁能源和电气化举措。
然而，最贫困的人群承受了最沉重的负担。波斯湾肥料供应中断导致农业生产成本在农民关键的种植决策时期上升，威胁全球粮食安全并加剧饥荒问题。虽然特权消费者可能只经历轻微的经济不便，但弱势人群面临冲突经济后果带来的更大困难。