Goldman Sachs Adjusts Fed Policy Expectations: Shifts from Previous Forecast of No Action to Anticipating a September Rate Hike
- Goldman Sachs economists now expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on September 16, reversing their previous expectation of no rate change.
- The adjustment was prompted by U.S. Consumer Price Index data released on Friday morning that exceeded market expectations.
- Following the CPI data release, market pricing indicated that the probability of a September rate hike had risen to approximately 90%.
- Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle stated that if the Fed chooses to hold steady despite the 90% market pricing for a hike, it could trigger significant market volatility that the FOMC would want to avoid.
Goldman Sachs has reversed its interest rate forecast for the Federal Reserve's September 16 policy meeting, now expecting a 25 basis point rate hike instead of holding rates steady. The shift follows Friday morning's release of U.S. Consumer Price Index data that came in above market expectations.
Following the CPI report, market pricing moved sharply, with the probability of a September rate hike rising to approximately 90%. Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle explained the rationale for the forecast adjustment in a research note, stating that while the CPI data only slightly raised their forecast for August core PCE to 0.26% and did not fundamentally alter their inflation outlook, the market's strong pricing for a hike creates a policy dilemma.
Mericle noted that if the Federal Reserve chooses to hold rates steady despite the 90% market probability already priced in for a rate increase, it could trigger significant market volatility—an outcome the FOMC would likely seek to avoid.
高盛调整美联储政策预期：从维持不变转向预期9月加息
高盛已调整对美联储9月16日政策会议的利率预期，现预期加息25个基点，而非维持利率不变。这一转变是在周五上午美国消费者物价指数数据公布后做出的，该数据超出了市场预期。
CPI报告公布后，市场定价大幅调整，9月加息概率升至约90%。高盛首席美国经济学家大卫·梅里克尔在研究报告中解释了预测调整的原因，指出虽然CPI数据仅略微提高了他们对8月核心PCE的预测至0.26%，并未从根本上改变其通胀前景，但市场对加息的强劲定价造成了政策困境。
梅里克尔指出，如果美联储在市场已定价90%加息概率的情况下选择维持利率不变，可能引发重大市场波动——这是美联储政策委员会可能希望避免的结果。