US retail sales slump unexpectedly and sharply after a summer tax-refund boost fades
- U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July, the biggest monthly drop since May 2025, after economists had expected a small increase.
- The decline followed stronger spending in April and May, when many consumers used government tax refunds and later boosted purchases around major sales events.
- Excluding gas stations and auto dealers, retail sales slipped 0.2%, while the Commerce Department’s control group fell 0.4%.
- Gas station sales dropped 0.9%, and motor vehicle and parts dealers saw a 1.8% decline after a June increase.
- Some economists said the report, along with weaker jobs data and softer consumer sentiment, suggests the economy may be slowing, though they said it is too early to rule out continued consumer strength.
U.S. retail sales fell unexpectedly in July, dropping 0.6% from the prior month after a spring boost from tax refunds faded. The Commerce Department said the decline was the largest since May 2025 and came in below economists’ expectations for a small increase.
The weakness was broad enough to affect the measures often watched for economic momentum. Sales excluding gas stations and auto dealers fell 0.2%, while the control group used in GDP calculations declined 0.4%. Gas station sales and auto-related purchases both fell after stronger readings in June.
Some categories held up better, including clothing, furniture, building materials and restaurants. Still, the report added to concerns raised by last week’s weaker jobs data and by a drop in consumer sentiment, which also fell this month as households faced persistent price pressures.
For markets, the report is likely modestly negative for U.S. stocks because it points to slower consumer demand and a softer growth outlook. The impact on gold and the dollar could be mixed to slightly supportive for gold if traders see the data as increasing the odds of slower growth or easier policy, while the effect on crypto is likely neutral unless broader risk sentiment weakens further.
夏季退税提振消退后 美国零售销售意外大幅下滑
美国7月零售销售意外下滑，环比下降0.6%，此前春季受退税推动的消费提振已经消退。美国商务部表示，这是自2025年5月以来最大的单月降幅，也低于经济学家预期的小幅增长。
这一下滑已经影响到通常用来观察经济动能的指标。剔除加油站和汽车经销商后，零售销售下降0.2%；用于GDP计算的控制组下降0.4%。加油站销售和汽车相关消费在6月走强后也出现回落。
不过，服装、家具、建材和餐饮等部分类别仍有增长。即便如此，这份数据仍加重了市场对经济放缓的担忧，因为上周就业数据偏弱，而且本月消费者信心也因持续的价格压力而下滑。
从市场角度看，这份报告对美国股市偏利空，因为它指向消费需求减弱和增长前景走软。若交易员据此押注经济降温或政策更宽松，黄金可能受到一定支撑；对加密货币的直接影响通常偏中性，但若整体风险偏好继续走弱，相关资产也可能承压。