Wall Street week ahead: Reports on consumer confidence and inflation on tap
- Wall Street will get new readings next week on consumer confidence and inflation, two closely watched indicators for markets.
- The Conference Board’s consumer confidence report is due Tuesday, and economists expect confidence in the U.S. economy to have fallen again in August after a decline in July.
- The U.S. will release July personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, data on Wednesday; it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
- Inflation has remained above 3%, and the Fed is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its September meeting.
- The article says higher inflation has been pushed up by tariffs and by disruptions to global oil shipments linked to the U.S. war with Iran.
Wall Street is heading into a week centered on two key data releases: consumer confidence and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, PCE. Both reports are expected to give investors a clearer read on how households are coping with prices and whether inflation is still proving sticky.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence report arrives Tuesday. Economists expect it to show another decline in August after confidence slipped in July. The article says confidence has been weak for much of the year as inflation has stayed elevated.
On Wednesday, the U.S. will publish July PCE data. Inflation has remained above 3%, still above the Fed’s 2% target. The report notes that higher tariffs and disruptions to oil shipments have added to price pressure.
For markets, the data could be mildly negative for stocks and other risk assets if it confirms weak consumer sentiment and persistent inflation, since that would reinforce expectations that interest rates stay higher for longer. The main effect on currencies and rates would likely come through any shift in expectations for the Fed’s September meeting.
华尔街下周前瞻：消费者信心和通胀数据将公布
华尔街下周的焦点是两项关键数据：消费者信心和美联储偏好的通胀指标PCE。它们将帮助投资者判断家庭对物价的承受力，以及通胀是否仍然顽固。
Conference Board 的消费者信心报告将于周二公布。经济学家预计，8月信心会在7月下滑后再度下降。文章称，由于通胀持续偏高，消费者信心今年大部分时间都较为疲弱。
周三，美国将公布7月个人消费支出物价指数（PCE）。通胀率一直保持在3%以上，仍高于美联储2%的目标。报道指出，关税以及石油运输受阻都加大了物价压力。
对市场而言，如果数据继续显示消费者情绪疲弱、通胀依然偏高，股票和其他风险资产可能受到轻微利空影响，因为这会强化利率维持高位更久的预期。外汇和利率市场的主要反应，可能取决于这些数据是否改变市场对美联储9月会议的判断。